Five winners followed by an immediate rule change

A worked example using a hypothetical scenario to show how the reasoning applies.

The scenario

A hypothetical analyst praises a method after five wins, then changes it after three losses. If each short streak triggers a new rule, the record no longer tests one stable method. Keep the version history and decide evaluation windows before looking at the next streak.

What to take from it

Stability of the evaluation rule helps learning; it does not justify persisting with a demonstrably broken method.

What to check next

• Retain the original decision rule through the review window.
• Report the full run of outcomes rather than highlights.
• Compare process errors with result errors separately.

Keep the conclusion specific

Separate the observation, the interpretation and the unresolved question. A worksheet is most useful when its conclusion stays within the evidence entered into it.

The name is not a promise of winning selections or financial returns.